Ahh… that would explain my interests in such subjects.

Shell Petroleum uses scenario planning to the fullest. In the event of a failure, internal or external, they’ve got several business, management, operational and functional plans in place. Many attribute this careful reticulate planning the reason for their dominance in their industry.

Let’s just say, the world is about to end. After many days of debate, arguments and consideration in the United Nations, the economic planners have come up with a figure. We got 30 days to prepare and save 10 million people. Here are a few things we need to consider.

1. Who gets to live?

2. What new roles will the new citizens of the earth play in this scenario?

3. Habitable land remains the same (resources rich in the Gulf, forest in Malaysia, and uranium in the “usual” places Where would you relocate your new capital, and why?

Let us tackle each one by one.

1. Human beings ages 20-35 should populate the new earth. The new world would comprise of 90% of this age group. Gender disparity, I’m putting it 60% male 40% female. My Excel Spreadsheet says 5.4 million dudes 3.6 million babes.

So, what skills and specialities are required? Assuming all infrastructure is destroyed and has to be rebuilt, then.

10% – Engineers (bridges, telecommunication networks, electrical, nuclear & fuel)

10% – Technicians / Labourers (Actually building the infrastructure)

10% – Chefs / Culinary skilled workers. Different cruisine, cooking styles, kitchen helpers, F&B industry

5% – Entertainers. Music artists, movie makers

5% –  Advertising & Marketing people. Aiding the new government, businesses and society in general.

40% – Educators. As new babies are scheduled to arrive within the next 10 years resulting in population explosion (here we go again). We need people to teach. Ideally a new society is where people share information and wisdom freely. I feel society today are a bit selfish. Of course there is the internet, but within the office, skills sharing would be a threat to your own job.

1% – Government & Policy makers. Religious leaders (Christianity, Buddhism, Islam) will form a council and come to a mutual consensus. They will rule the equal spread of humankind with moderate teachings and emphasis on tolerance and forgiveness.

9% – Armed forces, undercover agents and the related agencies, traffic police, peace keeping task force, arms and weapons makers.

The final 10% of survivors make it solely on their looks, attractive genes pool, public vote and intelligence.

That would make up the 9,000,000 people needed to sustain a new world.

The remaining 1 million would make up of lawyers, doctors, scientists, sustainability engineers, creative thinkers and Steve Jobs and people who can have up to 20 years more in them. These wisdomous people will impart their wisdom (duh!) to the newer generation. Could be additional religious leaders, but we rather keep religion as a sidelined issue. Basic survival is important, and diseases & sanitary issues will pop up.

I think our bases are covered.Steve Jobs ranked most valuable CEO!

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1. At 42%, the biggest is the “Mainstream At-Homers” who spend 4-5 quid 3+ times a week. They are very sensitive to Promotions and very involved in the selection / researching of wine. Countries: France, Australia, Chile.

2. Adventurous Connoisseurs at 20% consists of regular wine drinkers (3+ occations weekly) spending top dollar 6-7 pounds. These high income bunch read upmarket newspapers and they really know their wine.

3. Sociable Promotion seekers. aka Cheapos who love wine. Highly sensitive to promotions and drinks almost every day!

4. Weekly Treaters at 18% seldom drink wine, but pay premium price. Young, single demographic.

5. Frugal Conservatives at 20% are infrequent wine drinkers, low income (poor), drinks at home alone, spends up to 4 pounds.

What I can see, is.. Mainstream at homers are the most lucrative sustaining market. 2nd choice would be Portrait 4 who do it once a week. The Adventurous dudes are hard to please cuz they really know their wine. Their top dollar is not worth it; its more like a niche.

There’s potential for Portriat 3, the drunkards who drink so often, but price would be an issue.

Here’s a Top 10 list as of 2005.

Top 3 Lager: Stella, Carling, Foster’s

Top 3 Wines: Hardys, Blossom Hill, E& J

Top 3 Fortited Wines: Harvey, Croft, Martini Extra Dry

Top 3 Ale / Stout: Guiness (duh~), John Smith, Boddington’s

Top 3 Liqueurs: Baileys, Southern Comfort, Pimms No. 1

Top 3 Champaign: Moet & Chandon (I actually tried this stuff before!), Veuve, Clicquot

Top 3 Ready-to-drink: Smirnoff Ice, Bacardi, WKD

Top 3 Cider & Perries: Strongbow, Lambrini, White Lightning

Top 3 White Spirits: Smifnoff Red Label, Gordon’s Gin, Glen’s Vodka

Top 3 Dark Spirits: Bell’s 8 Yr, The Famous Grouse, Teacher’s

[Source: AC Nielsen / Checkout 2005]

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It is finished. Up next on the 16th is my BMPP final paper (gotta study real hard), then its a more relaxing IMT finale on the 26th November 2009.

It is just an awesome experience, studying with the UniSA kids. And with today’s final presentation, it is finished. Praise God.

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We started in a weak position, weathered through the economic storm, outwitted our opponents, caught a lucky break, you name it, we’ve got it.

We are leaders in 5 consumer segments across 4 different classes of vehicles. Net income dipped, but cash flow and balances are excellent and healthy. Not to mention the dealer rating of 75 being highest (tied with Michelle Yong’s Firm E) but our customer preference is a sky-high 29%, closest competitor at 20%!!!)

Very very very happy, and thankful to the team.

But will it transform into real world applicable knowledge? One can only ponder the realism aspect of this game…

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